Jobs has announced plans to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 — a year and a half after launch. But a million iPhones in 74 days works out to a little less than 5 million iPhones per year — if you’re selling them at a consistent rate.
Daring Fireball's John Gruber posits:
Pointing out that iPhones aren’t yet selling at a pace to reach 10 million by the end of 2008 is like pointing out that a car that just pulled out of a parking spot isn’t yet going 65 MPH. Sales curves bend.
According to recent stats, Apple outsold all other smartphones in the month of July. Gruber also points out that Apple will continue to lower the price. One thing I know is that eventually Apple will also accept a subsidy from AT&T. It's best to get as much money now as possible. Besides ... the iPhone hasn't been released internationally yet where I think it will be an even bigger hit than in the US!
Carl Howe of Blackfriars Marketing:
Everyone is focusing on estimates of about 700,000 iphones sold over 74 days. But in reality, iPhones were very hard to find for nearly 21 days of that selling period! I’ve included a (admittedly very rough) movie showing iPhone availability at Apple stores during the first month of sales. Suffice it to say that if you wanted an iPhone during the period between July 1 and July 21, you had to be either lucky or determined to get one, because most Apple stores were out of stock of them.
* Credit to Daring Fireball for Carl Howe quote