Tuesday, January 09, 2007

My Favorite Wrong Prognosticator: Daring Fireball



My favorite wrong prognosticator of the MacWorld Prediction makers: John Gruber of Daring Fireball. He should have read this blog.

Gruber Writes followed by RIGHT or WRONG:

Here are my predictions for what is going to be announced in the keynote, ranked roughly in order of significance, not likelihood. My gut feeling is that this is going to be a big one.

1) New User Interface Theme to Replace Aqua in 10.5 WRONG ... not even discussed.

2) iPod Mobile Phone — Even just a few days ago, I did not expect to see Apple announce a phone this week. But over the weekend I flip-flopped, and I now think it’s more likely than not. Not a VOIP phone that depends on Wi-Fi or anything like that, but an honest-to-god mobile phone. It seems like there has to be some sort of “Wow, I thought maybe Apple would announce a phone but I didn’t think they’d do it like this!” factor, but damned if anyone knows what it is. My wild unlikely-but-wouldn’t-it-be-cool-as-shit guess: that it’s not an iPod phone, but rather introduces a new mobile device OS. only 10% RIGHT - he was more or less covering his bases with this comment and didn't really base this prediction on any common sense. Listening to his recent podcast with Hivelogic pretty much told me what a dolt he was about this.

3) New MacBook Pro Form Factor — Good-bye, anodized Aluminum, hello something new that plays off the design cues of the new Mac OS X user interface mentioned above. WRONG ... not even discussed

4) New Sub-Compact MacBook — It’s currently a gaping hole in their notebook line-up. Look for it to be a “pro” model WRONG ... not even discussed

5) Absolutely Nothing That Involves the Word ‘Tablet’ WRONG in the sense that the iPhone is touchscreen

6) iTV, Along With Apple-Branded Flat Screen TVs With iTV Built-In — Why settle for selling a $299 TV peripheral when you can sell two- or three-thousand-dollar TVs with iTV built-in? WRONG ... he even gets the "known" prediction wrong

7) Dual Quad-Core Mac Pros — Now that Intel has officially announced their Core 2 Quad processors, this one almost seems like a gimme, but I called for it last week, too. WRONG ... not even discussed.

8) Demo of Adobe Photoshop CS3 Beta — Running sickeningly fast on a new eight-core Mac Pro. Maybe demos of other heretofore unseen Adobe CS3 apps, too. WRONG ... not even discussed

9) Roz Ho From Microsoft’s Mac BU — She’ll tell us how well the new universal binary versions of the Office apps are coming along, but no demo. WRONG ... but Microsoft did announce this.

10) ’07 Updates to the iWork and iLife suites. It’d be more surprising if either suite weren’t updated. I called for a spreadsheet for iWork last year, and I’ll do the same this year. WRONG ... not even discussed

11) Higher-Speed AirPort Based on 802.11n — Also seems like a gimme, but included here for the sake of completeness. I expect to see 802.11n Wi-Fi in all Macs and in the iTV. CORRECT!

12) Absolutely Nothing That Involves the Phrase ‘Stock Options Backdating’ CORRECT, but I think Steve Jobs made it pretty clear that financials are strong and Apple is strong ... in fact i think it was almost over emphasized this keynote.

13) iPod Mobile Phone — Even just a few days ago, I did not expect to see Apple announce a phone this week. But over the weekend I flip-flopped, and I now think it’s more likely than not. Not a VOIP phone that depends on Wi-Fi or anything like that, but an honest-to-god mobile phone. It seems like there has to be some sort of “Wow, I thought maybe Apple would announce a phone but I didn’t think they’d do it like this!” factor, but damned if anyone knows what it is. My wild unlikely-but-wouldn’t-it-be-cool-as-#@!% guess: that it’s not an iPod phone, but rather introduces a new mobile device OS. WRONG AND RIGHT ... no credit for screwing up the prediction with babble and curse words.

No comments: