Wednesday, October 12, 2005

After all "ANAL" is the first part of "ANALYSIS"

$ $ $ $


As reported by MacMinute:

Apple's stock takes a dip

October 12 - Apple's stock price took a nose dive after the closing bell yesterday, reports Reuters. "After the closing bell, shares of Apple Computer Inc. slid almost 11 percent to $46.15 in after-hours trading on the Inet electronic brokerage system after the computer maker reported quarterly revenue that fell short of Wall Street expectations. It closed on Nasdaq at $51.59, up 2.4 percent."


The "Wall Street expectations" were solely based on higher iPod sales. But were those estimates for THIS QUARTER???

Apple reports on a different fiscal schedule than many companies and frankly I believe it is a contrbuting factor here. See, Apple's 4th Quarter of 2005 ended September 24, 2005. This included the months of July, August, and September. Apple's first quarter 2006 will include October, November, and December of 2005. The iPod Nano (which analysts included in their "estimates") was only released September 6, 2005!!!

I think "analysts" included iPod Nano sales for the full quarter which was expected to be about 3 million. Instead, for the reporting period, Apple shipped about 1.5 million Nanos.

I also have to make a [ JACKWHISPERS REDUNDANT COMMENT ] : The past few weeks have slowed iPod sales considerably due to the Rumor Mill proclaiming Video iPods. So folks, yes, Apple had a great quarter ... in fact, it was a record revenue quarter (in every sales aspect) but, look what happened to the stock ... were rumor sites (as I have suggested) partially to blame?

Here are some details of the quarter for reference:

Sales:

• 1,236,000 Macs sold
• 6,451,000 iPods sold
• 602,000 of the Macs were Desktops (PowerMac, iMac, eMac, Mac mini, Xserve)
• 634,000 of the Macs were Portables (PowerBooks, iBooks)
• More than a Million iPod nanos were sold within 17 days of its release.
• Mac OS X 10.4 revenue is approximately $35 million per quarter

Notes:
- Intel Based Macs still expected by June 2006. "Very cool" PowerPCs in the pipeline.
- iTunes Music Store Market share > 80%


That leaves 20% +/- for all other Music Stores with Napster being #2 with about 10%.

[UPDATE] Here is an interesting take on the financial results from The Register UK - concerning Gil Amelio (former apple CEO)

2 comments:

Steven Weyhrich said...

It is possible that the drop in price has to do with shares being sold by those who wanted to take profits while the price was high. The stock market has never made sense (to me at least) with what the real value of a company or product is; it is way too emotional and lemming-driven in its reactions to events.

fixyourthinking said...

Could be ... but most "analysts" said the dip was due "not meeting expectations"

Steve Jobs pointed out on CNBC that Apple exceeded "First Call's" expectations which was what analysts are suppose to go by.